The Fight Over the Script

Written by Al Broadbent

A possible Trump, Xi and Putin meeting in Shenzhen next week is in doubt. The disagreement is not about what the leaders would discuss. It is about how the room would be set.

Next week, Asia-Pacific leaders gather in Shenzhen, China, for the APEC summit on November 18 and 19. On the sidelines, there has been talk of something rare: a three-way meeting of Presidents Trump, Xi and Putin. According to The Wall Street Journal, that meeting is now in doubt, and the sticking point is format. Beijing wants a tightly scripted session, with a statement written in advance and little room for open discussion. Washington wants a freer exchange in which the three leaders actually talk to each other. If they cannot agree, the fallback is a set of separate one-on-one meetings. Nothing has been confirmed.

Why fight over choreography? Because the format decides who can be put on the spot. China's nuclear arsenal is much smaller than America's or Russia's, though it is growing, and Beijing has long refused three-way arms control talks. With New START, the last U.S.-Russia nuclear treaty, expired since February, Trump wants China included in whatever comes next. In an open conversation, Xi could be pressed on that, on China's purchases of Iranian oil, or on U.S. charges that Chinese firms supply Russia's military industry, which Beijing denies. A script removes that risk while still giving Beijing the picture it wants: China hosting both leaders. For Washington, a script means a long trip for a photograph. Putin, who proposed the meeting, reportedly hopes to use it to move toward an end to the war in Ukraine on favorable terms, with Ukraine not at the table.

Rooms like this are built weeks before anyone sits down. Staff negotiate the order of speakers and how long each one talks, whether reporters stay past the opening remarks, how many seats are at the table, who sits in the second row taking notes and interpreting, and whether there will be a joint statement and, if so, whether its text is agreed before the doors open. A scripted meeting works like a ceremony: each leader reads, the cameras record, and the outcome is known in advance. An open meeting works like a negotiation, where the interpreters, the pauses and five unplanned minutes can matter more than any prepared remarks. Neither is wrong. The real question for each side is what it needs the room to produce.

What to watch next week: whether the three meet at all, or the plan shrinks to separate meetings; whether a joint statement appears within minutes, a sign it was written in advance; whether reporters are allowed in beyond a brief photo; and whether nuclear arms, Iran or Ukraine appear in each government's official summary. Those summaries, called readouts, often differ, and the differences show what each side wanted the meeting to mean. In diplomacy, the format is often the first agreement, and sometimes the only one.

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Al Broadbent